NZDJPYdaily page 001

The NZD/JPY pair might head lower in the medium and long term. The RSI oscillator is below 50 on the daily and weekly charts, and this shows a downtrend. The stochastic oscillator also indicates that the pair might fall in the next few weeks, according to the daily chart.
The NZD/JPY has remained in a downward trend channel for the past 12 months, hitting over a two year lower earlier in August.
The most important data of this week:
September 19
New Zealand GDP QoQ (+0.8% expectation); ( +0.5% previous)
YoY (+2.5% expectation); ( +2.7% previous)
BOJ rate decision (-0.10% expectation); ( -0.10% previous)
September 20
Japan CPI YoY (+1.1% expectation); (+0.9% previous)

NZDJPYweekly page 001

EURAUDdaily page 001

The EUR/AUD pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical analysis. The RSI on the daily chart (80.45) has already reached an extremely overbought level. Also on the weekly chart, the RSI oscillator is above 70 and this indicates an overbought level.

The most important data of this week:

September 12
Eurozone Employment QoQ (+0.4% previous)
YoY (+1.4% previous)
September 13
Australia Employment Change August (+18k expectation);(-3.9k previous)

Unemployment Rate August (+5.3% expectation);( +5.3% previous)

Germany CPI MoM (+0.1% expectation);( +0.1% previous)

YoY (+2.00% expectation); ( +2.00% previous)

ECB Rate Decision (0.00% unchanged expectation); (0.00% unchanged previous)

EURAUDweekly page 001

AUDCADdaily page 001

The AUD/CAD currency pair might rise in the medium-long term, according to our technical analysis. The MACD oscillator will soon turn positive on the daily chart. The double bottom (0.9352) was also rejected. Moreover, the RSI oscillator on the weekly chart is 33.05, and this indicates that the AUD/CAD pair is near oversold territory. According to our analysts, there is also a high probability that Australian economy will grow by 0.9% QoQ.
The most important data of this week:
September 5
Australia GDP QoQ (+0.7% expectation); ( +1.0% previous)
YoY (+2.8% expectation); (+3.1% previous)
BOC rate decision (+1.5% expectation); ( +1.5% previous)
September 7
Canada Unemployment rate August (+5.9% expectation); (+5.8% previous)

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The RSI on the daily chart is below 50 and this is a sign of a medium-term downtrend. Moreover, Canada's inflation rate rose to its highest level since 2011 last month, as higher prices for airplane tickets, tourism and gasoline pushed the rate to three per cent. That's up from 2.5 per cent in June, which was already the highest level in more than six years.
According to our technical and fundamental analysis, the USD/CAD pair might fall in order to form a double bottom at 1.2550, in the long term.

The most important data of this week:
August 28
US GDP QoQ (+4.0% expectation); (+4.1% previous)
Canada Current Account (-15.45bl expectation); (-19.50bl previous)
August 30
Canada GDP MoM (+0.1% expectation); (+0.5% previous)
YoY (+2.3% expectation); (+2.6% previous)

USDCADweekly page 0011

UJdaily page 001

The USD/JPY currency pair might fall in the medium term, according to the daily and weekly chart. The price is below EMA 50 and this indicates a start of a downtrend. The RSI oscillator is also below 50 on the daily chart.

According to the weekly chart, the price might reach EMA 50 (110.07), in order to form a double bottom at 104.70 in the long term.

Fed might leave rates unchanged next month. Moreover, Japan's Central Bank is unlikely to make any change to its monetary policy given the weak inflation outlook, most analysts said.

The most important data of this week:

August 22
FOMC minutes
August 24
Fed Hosts Annual Jackson Hole Central Banking Symposium

UJweekly page 001

EURdaily1 page 001

The EUR/USD currency pair indicates an oversold level around RSI 30, according to the daily chart and weekly chart. A medium-long term target for this pair might be 1.1730 (Fibo 38%).
Eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018. Eurozone economic growth has already slowed during the first quarter of 2018.

August 14
Germany GDP QoQ (+0.4% expectation); ( +0.3% previous)
YoY (+2.1% expectation); (+2.3% previous)
Germany CPI MoM (+0.3% expectation); ( +0.3% previous)
YoY (+2% expectation); ( +2% previous)
Eurozone GDP QoQ (+0.3% expectation); (+0.3% previous)
YoY (+2.1% previous); (+2.1% previous)
August 17
Eurozone CPI MoM (-0.3% expectation); (+0.1% previous)
YoY (+2.1% expectation); (+2.0% previous)

EURweekly chart page 001

 

OILdaily page 001

Crude oil prices are catching some lift, with WTI barrel prices pushing over the 69.75 level as Saudi output begins to slide while US drilling efforts stall out.
The MACD on the daily chart indicates an uptrend for Crude oil in the next days. Moreover, the RSI on the Crude oil weekly chart is above 50 and this indicates that Oil prices will rise in the medium-long term.
Oil futures gained at the beginning of this week after OPEC sources said Saudi crude production unexpectedly fell in July, raising concerns about global oil supplies as the United States prepares to reinstate sanctions against major exporter Iran.
According to our analysts, U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude could soon push oil prices above $80 a barrel.

The most important data of this week:
August 8
US Crude Oil Inventories - 3.6M barells expectation ( 3.8M barells previous)

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July 30GBPdaily page 001 1

The GBP/USD pair might rise in the medium term, according to the daily and weekly charts. A potential medium-term target is 1.3605 (Fibo 0.50).The macroeconomic data also indicate an increase for this pair.

Most analysts agree that the Bank of England will increase its interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. That means that the spread between the U.S. interest rates and UK interest rates will fall.

Moreover, the U.S. economy is at risk of overheating, as the U.S. GDP grew 4.1% in the second quarter of this year, the fastest pace of growth since late 2014. Net exports contributed 1.06 percentage point to the pace of growth, the most since 2013.

Donald Trump, speaking last Friday at the White House, celebrated the report and said the economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent.

The most important data of this week:
August 2
BOE rate +0.75% expectation (+0.50% previous)
August 3
US NFP +185k expectation (+202k previous)
US Unemployment rate +3.9% expectation ( +4.0% previous)

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July 23EURUSDdaily page 001 1

 

The EUR/USD currency pair might rise in the next period, according to the daily chart. The price has already reached EMA 50, and a potential near-term target is 1.1816 (Fibo 0.38 on the daily chart).

In the context of a low volatility, is hard to predict the future moves in the coming months. However, this week's key focus would be on the ECB rate decision, scheduled to be announced on Thursday.

The most important data of this week:
July 26
ECB rate decision (unchanged expectation); ( unchanged previous)
Mario Draghi’s press conference
July 27
France GDP QoQ (+0.3% expectation); ( +0.2% previous)
YoY (+1.9% expectation); ( +2.2% previous)
US GDP QoQ (+4.3% expectation); ( +2.0% previous)

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The FTSE 100 index might rise in the medium term, according to the daily and weekly charts. The RSI oscillator stays above 50 on both charts, and this is a sign that the price may rise. Moreover, the price has already reached EMA 50 and EMA 200, on the daily chart.
The FTSE 100 remains in positive territory amid upbeat economic data from the UK instead and limited fallout from latest Brexit developments.

The most important data of this week:
July 17
BOE Chief Mark Carney speaks on Financial Stability
UK Unemployment rate 4.2% expected ( 4.2% previous)
July 18
UK CPI MoM 0.2% expected ( 0.4% previous)

           YoY 2.6% expected ( 2.4% previous)

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