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The USD/JPY currency pair might rise in the medium term, according to our daily and weekly analysis. The RSI oscillator is above 50 on the daily chart, and a potential target for this pair is Fibo 0.23 (112.24). The price on the weekly chart has already reached EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100, and this is a clear confirmation for an uptrend. The RSI oscillator on the weekly chart also stays above 50.


The most important data from this week:

March 19
BOJ minutes
March 20
FOMC rate decision (2.5% expectation); ( 2.5% previous)
March 21
Japan CPI (0.8% YoY expectation); ( 0.8% previous)

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daily chartAUD page 001

The AUD/USD currency pair may fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The price is below EMA 200 and EMA 50, and the RSI is below 50 on the weekly chart. MACD crosses into negative territory, on the daily chart. A potential medium-term target might be 0.6744.

The U.S. dollar will continue to appreciate, and AUD is more likely to depreciate further. Domestic economy in Australia remains weak, and the housing market continues to deteriorate. There is a high probability that Australia will be the first G10 central bank to start cutting rates this year.

The most important data from this week:

March 5

Australia GDP 4Q (-0.1% expectation); ( +0.4% previous)

RBA rate 1.5% expectation ( 1.5% previously)

March 8

US NFP +187K expectation (+296K previous)

Unemployment rate 3.9% expectation ( 4.0% previous)

AUDUSDweekly page 001

 

EURJPYdaily page 001

 

The EUR/JPY pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical analysis. The price is below EMA 50 and EMA 200 on the daily chart, and the RSI oscillator is still below 50. The MACD remains in negative territory. The EUR/JPY may fall at around 121.00 in the medium term. The euro currency has slipped in value after the European Central Bank (ECB) trimmed its growth forecasts for this year. The 2019 GDP (gross domestic product) figure was cut back to 1.7 percent from a previous forecast of 1.8 percent.

The most important data from this week:

February 13

Japan GDP QoQ (+0.4% expectation); ( -0.6% previous)

                    YoY  (+1.4% expectation); (-2.5% previous)

February 14

Germany GDP  QoQ  (+0.1% expectation); ( -0.2% previous)

                          YoY   (+0.8% expectation); (+1.1% previous)

Eurozone GDP  QoQ  (+0.2% expectation); (+0.2% previous)

                           YoY  (+1.2% expectation); (+1.2% previous)

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The AUD/NZD pair may fall in the medium term according to our technical analysis.
The price stays below EMA200 and EMA50 on the daily chart, and the RSI oscillator is below 50. Also, the RSI oscillator on the weekly chart stays below 50. The AUD/NZD might fall at 103.00 in the medium term.

The most important data from this week:
February 5
RBA Cash Rate (+1.5% expectation); ( +1.5% previous)
February 6
New Zealand Employment Rate (Q4) (+4.1% expectation); ( +3.9% previous)
February 8
RBS Statement on Monetary Policy

 

USDJPYdaily page 001

 

The USD/JPY currency pair may fall in the medium term. The RSI oscillator is below 50 on the daily and weekly charts. The price has already reached EMA 200 on the weekly chart, and this indicates that the fall will continue. A medium-term target for this pair is below 108.00.

The most important data of the week:
January 30
US ADP Employment Change (+185k expectation); ( +271k previous)
US GDP QoQ (+2.6% expectation); ( +3.4% previous)
February 1
US NFP (+165k expectation); ( +312k previous)
US Unemployment Rate (3.9% expectation); ( 3.9% previous)

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AJdaily page 001

The AUD/JPY currency pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The RSI oscillator on the daily and weekly charts is below 50, and this indicates a downtrend. A medium-term target may be 75.23 where is Fibo 0.23 on the weekly chart.
Low wages, high debts and housing bubble continue to threaten the Australian economy and the Australian dollar.

The most important data of this week:
January 23
BOJ rate decision (-0.1% expectation) ( -0.1% previous)
BOJ Outlook Report
Australia Unemployment Rate (+5.1% expectation) ( +5.1% previous)
Unemployment Change (18k expectation) ( 37k previous)

weekly chartAJ page 001

EURUSDdaily page 001

The EUR/USD currency pair might rise in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The RSI oscillator is above 50, and the price has already reached EMA 50 on the daily chart. The next target on the medium-long term might be Fibo 0.38 (1.1725) on the daily chart. The stochastic oscillator indicates an uptrend on the weekly chart.
The U.S. dollar continues to be low against other currencies amid renewed trade war fears and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

The most important data of this week:

January 15
Eurozone GDP QoQ (+1.5% expectation); ( +2.2% previous)
January 16
Germany CPI MoM (+0.1% expectation); ( +0.1% previous)
YoY (+1.7% expectation); (+1.7% previous)
FED Beige Book

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CHFdaily page 001

 

The USD/CHF currency pair might fall in the next period, according to the daily and weekly charts. The price is above EMA 200, and the RSI oscillator is below 50 on the daily chart. The potential target in the medium-long term might be Fibo 0.50 (0.9679) and Fibo 0.38 (0.9561). The weekly chart also indicates a downtrend. The price is above EMA 50, and the RSI oscillator is above 50.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome "Jay" Powell took steps to reassure financial markets recently. He said that the US central bank would be "patient" about rate rises.
The most important data for this week:
January 9
Switzerland CPI MoM (-0.2% expectation); (-0.3% previous)
YoY (+0.8% expectation); (+0.9% previous)
US FOMC minutes
January 10
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (+2.4% expectation); (+2.4% previous)
Fed’s Powell to Speak to The Economic Club of Washington
January 11
US CPI MoM (-0.1% expectation); (0.0% previous)
YoY (+1.9% expectation); (+2.2% previous)

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USDCADdaily page 0012

 

The USD/CAD pair might continue to rise in the medium term, according to the daily and weekly charts. The RSI oscillator is above 50, and the MACD remains in positive territory on the daily chart. The RSI oscillator on the weekly chart stays above 50. The pair might rise around 1.3620 in the medium term.

December 19

Canada CPI  MoM (-0.4% expectation); ( +0.3% previous)

                      YoY   (+1.8% expectation); ( +2.4% previous)

FOMC rate decision (+2.5% expectation); ( +2.25% previous)

December 21

Canada GDP  MoM  (+0.2% expectation); ( -0.1% previous)

                        YoY   (+2.2% expectation);  ( +2.1% previous)

USDCADweekly page 0012

EURHPYdaily page 001

The EUR/JPY currency pair might fall in the medium-long term, according to the daily and weekly charts. The MACD indicator is into negative territory on the daily chart. A potential target in the medium term might be 126.25 where is Fibo 0.50. On the other hand, the RSI oscillator on the weekly chart stays below 50.
The most important data of the week:
December 13
Germany CPI MoM +0.1% expectation (+0.1% previous)
YoY +2.3% expectation (+2.3%% previous)
ECB rate decision unchanged expectation -0.40% ( -0.40% previous)
December 14
Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index 4Q +18 expectation ( 19 previous)

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