A powerful combination of factors lining up here against the Aussie and in favour of the JPY as the commodity complex has come in for a broad correction here.Was the reminder overnight in the form of the May CPI data out of Japan that Japanese real yields remain quite strong, while negative yields reign elsewhere. Looking for the risk of a JPY back-up for some time, but none unfolded until now, and the move could extend if long yields remain pinned lower and the sell-off in equities broadens (huge divergences last week in the US, with the median value stock down and quite badly, even as growth and momentum cheered the fall in longer yields). There’s certainly room for a considerable back-up in the JPY crosses without “breaking” anything, although any such move would likely have to see further downside pressure on long safe-haven yields and a significant further correction in commodities prices. AUDJPY is still within the multi-month range, but the focus looks lower if this move doesn’t immediately back up, perhaps eyeing the 100-day moving average, currently at 80.40, or even more to the downside if the market conviction in the trades that have proven so successful since the pandemic lows are in for a more significant consolidation.