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The ECB administered a hawkish broadside , raising its forecasts for headline inflation to 6.3% for next year and 3.4% for 2024 (From 5.5% and 2.4% previously, suggesting a far longer time frame with uncomfortably high inflation. The core CPI forecasts were raised to 4.2% ex food and energy for 2023 and 2.8% for 2024, versus 3.4%/2.3% in September). It also outlined its quantitative tightening plan to start rolling off EUR 15 billion of asset per month from March, with ECB President Lagarde claiming the willingness to continue to hike 50 basis points at several coming meetings if necessary, with a general message that there is far more rate tightening to do from here. But after an initial sprint higher that saw EURUSD trading well above 1.0700 despite relative USD firmness elsewhere, the EURUSD collapsed back toward 1.0600 before stabilizing closer to 1.0650 this morning and then easing lower again. Still, the euro was very firm against most of the rest of G10 currencies as the German 2-year yield jumped a full 25 basis points on the day and closed the day at a cycle high (and high since 2008) of 2.39%. EURJPY leaped two figures higher.

EURUSD W1 12 19 2022 1426


EURJPY W1 12 19 2022 1429





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