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As the Fed Chair Powell himself noted in a speech on inflation late last year, the key risk for further inflationary pressures comes from the labor-intensive services sector of the US economy, so arguably the ISM Services survey should carry plenty of weight today, together with the usual focus on payrolls and earnings growth, with the market leaning for the risk of stronger data today after a very strong December ADP Private Payrolls print 235k  and a revision of November data to 182k from 127k and with a very strong weekly claims number at 204k, the second-lowest print since May.

USDJPY D1 01 09 2023 1345

USDJPY is traditionally the most sensitive USD pair to US data, and would be even more so if any US data surprises add more volatility to the longer end of the US yield curve, as opposed to mostly seeing the market marking the front-end of the curve a bit higher or lower. The rally off the sub -130.00 lows has run into its important first resistance area  the pivot higher near 134.50 and near a prior pivot low back in early December. The next resistance area is the important 138.00+ resistance from early December, although the 200-day moving average comes in well below there at 136.50. To rise significantly above the 136.50-138.00 zone, we may need to see a more significant jump in longer US yields, not just the front end of the US yield curve.

USDJPY W1 01 09 2023 1344

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